Nitish Kumar’s Leadership Dilemma in Bihar’s NDA.A significant conundrum is unfolding within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, presenting a political riddle woven into the ever-shifting alliances of the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently described Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as ‘Laadla Mukhyamantri’—a term of affection but one that fell short of the grand endorsement the Janata Dal (United) had anticipated. This raises a crucial question: Is Nitish Kumar’s leadership dilemma in Bihar’s NDA becoming a contentious issue?
The Ambiguity of Leadership
JD(U) leaders had expected a clear declaration of Nitish as the coalition’s chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming assembly elections. Instead, the BJP’s statements have left much to interpretation. While it’s evident that the elections will be contested under Nitish’s leadership, will he be officially recognized as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate?
This question looms large, particularly as Nitish, aged 74, prepares for yet another term. Bihar’s intricate caste dynamics suggest that the JD(U) and the BJP, along with allies like Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha, could form a formidable electoral coalition. However, elections are not merely about numbers; they also hinge on chemistry and public sentiment. The real dilemma remains—does Nitish still command the goodwill of the electorate, or is he facing the law of diminishing returns?
The Stakes for the BJP
For the BJP, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Nitish’s presence in the NDA is crucial, as the JD(U)’s 12 Lok Sabha MPs are significant in the grander scheme of national politics. However, officially backing him as the coalition’s chief ministerial candidate carries inherent risks, particularly concerning the potential alienation of the BJP’s ideologically rigid base.
Since 2005, Nitish has been the cornerstone of Bihar’s political landscape, leading coalitions to four consecutive assembly victories and three wins in the last four Lok Sabha elections. Yet, his authority has waned, and the JD(U) is growing increasingly expectant. Recently, Nitish’s son, Nishant Kumar, broke his silence by publicly endorsing his father’s leadership and urging the NDA for a formal announcement. This statement made it clear that mere words would no longer suffice.
Political Maneuvering and Future Implications
The recent expansion of the Bihar cabinet only added to the prevailing uncertainty. Nitish inducted seven ministers from the BJP, adhering to the prearranged seat-sharing formula. However, the optics suggested a shift in power dynamics; for the first time since 2005, Nitish had to operate with a fully packed cabinet, indicating a decline in his political leverage.
Opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has seized this opportunity, asserting that Nitish would not return as chief minister after 2025. Meanwhile, the BJP has been hesitant, with state president Dilip Jaiswal initially stating that the elections would be fought under Nitish’s leadership, only to later clarify that Nitish is indeed their chief ministerial face.
As the election season heats up, political maneuvering is rampant. The JD(U) has informally earmarked 122 of the 243 assembly seats for its candidates, while the BJP insiders suggest an even split of approximately 100 seats for each major partner. Complicating matters further, the RJD is attempting to woo Nitish back into the mahagathbandhan fold, adding another layer of intrigue to this political landscape.
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